*WRITTEN PRIOR TO 2021 NFL DRAFT*
We have not reached the 2021 NFL Draft yet and much time is left for offseason moves to be made! However, there are many people that love to grab the value when they see it before the public hype significantly shifts the line! With that being said, I am going to go through the 16 NFL teams that are projected to have the best records; I will list their projected win total (in order of most projected wins) and give my prediction for whether the value lies in the over or the under, along with a brief explanation. Keep in mind that each team will be playing 17 games during next year’s season, not 16. Also keep in mind that there is 100% chance that some of these predictions will change. Here we go!
- Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 12 Wins
There is no questioning the coaching of Andy Reid or the talent level of Patrick Mahomes. I know most people probably won’t agree with this, but I don’t think they deserved to go 14-2 last season, as 8 of their 14 wins were won by 6 points or fewer. They also have a very difficult schedule next season, as they will have tough games against the Packers, the Titans, the Bills, the Browns, the Steelers, the Cowboys, and the Ravens. Even their easier non-divisional games against the Giants, the Eagles, the Football Team, and the Bengals are not free wins. Give me the Under 12 wins.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 11.5 Wins
This one’s pretty simple for me. I know people say TeAmS ThAt WiN ThE sUpEr BoWl aRe GoInG to DeClInE! Just stop. We still got the GOAT at QB, the team chemistry and spirit has already been established, the Saints will likely not be as competitive, and I love their schedule. Give me Over 11.5 Wins!
- Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 11 Wins
The Ravens went from being right up there with the Chiefs in the power rankings about one year ago, to then taking a bunch of heat with people claiming, “Lamar is a RB not a QB,” “Teams figured out their offense.” Essentially, everyone was predicting them to miss the playoffs during their mid-season slump and as I predicted, they came back and played at an elite level. Oddly, I think the Ravens lack of offensive production against Buffalo in that playoff game will leave a bad taste in people’s mouths and the fact that this line is so high is telling me that Vegas is predicting them to have a good season. I think if we wait this out, the line will drop to 10.5 but gun to my head right now, I’ll still tail with Over 11 wins (might see a push).
- Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
I have a feeling this line will likely go up to 11, which will make my decision more difficult. In a 17 game season, you have to think that Aaron Rodgers can do better than 10-7. It’s as simple as that. Give me Over 10.5 wins.
- Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
I’m feeling 10-7. Their defense is legit, Josh Allen is legit, and they’ll have some favorable matchups against the Texans, the Jaguars, the Panthers, and the Falcons but they are in a tough division where I expect the Patriots to be much more competitive than last year. I think this line is set very well but I’m going to slightly lean towards under 10.5 wins.
- San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
Obviously, the 49ers find themselves in a tough division, perhaps the most competitive in the league. We will gain clarity of the QB situation following the draft, but overall they have had a solid offseason. A healthy 49ers defense and offensive line can very well lead them to win the division, so I am projecting a bounce-back year. Not to mention, their schedule gives some very favorable matchups. Give me over 10.5 wins!
- Los Angeles Rams: Over/Under 10.5 Wins
I think it will either be LA or San Francisco to get 11+ wins, not both. Matthew Stafford will certainly be an upgrade from Jared Goff. However, I’m sensing a little too much hype in their direction and with the strength of schedule, I’m going to back the 49ers over the Rams. Give me under 10.5 wins.
- Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 10 Wins
In my opinion, this line is just way too low. I expect their offensive line and defense to remain extremely solid. Time will tell if Carson Wentz is an upgrade from Phillip Rivers but I have a feeling the answer will be yes! If they can provide him with the proper weapons, Indianapolis has the potential to smash this number and take the division with relative ease. Hammer the over here!
- Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
It is very possible that both the Titans and the Colts exceed their expectations just because I am expecting the Texans to be a dumpster fire and I don’t see the Jaguars as playoff contenders even with Trevor Lawrence. However, 9-8 just seems fitting with the Titans so I’m going to lean under 9.5 wins.
- Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
I think this line is set really well. Russ always seems to enter the season hot and then the team seems to sort of lose their momentum as the season continues. Their defense looked horrific last year which is not a good look when you are in a division with the Rams and the 49ers. Their schedule is the decision-maker for me. All 6 divisional games will be tough, then they will face Indianapolis, Green Bay, Minnesota, Tennessee, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Washington. My estimate is that they go 6-7 in these games and then 3-1 in their easier matchups against Detroit, Chicago, Houston, and Jacksonville. This leaves me with a 9-8 record so we are going to ride with under 9.5 wins.
- Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
There’s a lot to like about Cleveland this year. They appear to be having another great off-season, this team has an incredible offensive line with plenty of weapons for Baker, an above average defense, and great coaching. I think it would be disrespectful to predict anything worse than a 10-7 record. Give me over 9.5 wins!
- Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Every year I feel like I get sucked into thinking “You know what, they’ve done x, y, and z. They should have a great year!” It’s like drafting Joe Mixon in fantasy football. I understand the argument for taking over 9.5 wins in a 17 game season, last year we didn’t really see a healthy defense and a healthy Dak Prescott at the same time. If I had to predict one team to win the NFC East, it would have to be Dallas but that is with 35% confidence, max! Realistically, any team can win this division and I would not be surprised. I still have trust issues with the Cowboys. I’ll believe it when I see it, give me under 9.5 wins.
- New England Patriots: Over/Under 9 Wins
The Patriots lost a lot of close games last year and Cam Newton definitely did not help. I think the Patriots have been spending their money pretty wisely during the offseason trying to fill in some of the gaps and they will get Dont’a Hightower. Bill Belichick knows what he’s doing and I feel like predicting the Patriots to have another losing season would be straight up disrespectful. Give me over 9 wins.
- New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 9 Wins
I am genuinely so excited to watch Jameis start for another season. However, the Saints have been in serious trouble with their salary cap and will be losing a lot of key contributors. If Jameis couldn’t give Tampa Bay a winning record with all of their weapons, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints will getting 10+ wins. Jameis, I love you with all my heart, but give me under 9.5 wins.
- Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 9 Wins
I can’t really explain why, but I am just really not excited about Miami at all, and now they won’t have Fitzmagic to bail out Tua when he shits the bed. Their defense is certainly legit, but I’m just not sold on their offense. I think they could potentially get 9 wins, but nothing more. Let’s ride with under 9 wins.
- Los Angeles Chargers: Over/Under 9 Wins
I think everyone can agree that the Chargers were much better than their 7-9 record last year. 7 of their 9 losses came in one possession games, not to mention the really bad coaching of Anthony Lynn. I trust the Chargers under Brandon Staley as head coach and I have every reason to believe that Justin Herbert can lead the Chargers to the playoffs. We’re going to take over 9 wins here.