2022-23 NFL Future Bets for Degenerates

2022-23 NFL Future Bets for Degenerates

Pigskin lovers rejoice. The best time of the year is just around the corner. Yes, that is indeed football season. Deleting Beers on any given Monday, Thursday, and Sunday is almost here!

Below the ReRack Picks boys break down their favorite future bets pertaining to Super Bowl Winners, to make the playoffs, NFL Awards, Win Totals, Stats, and much more. 

As always, enjoy folks and….

Operation Bankrupt Vegas begins now.

Super Bowl Winners

Emperor’s Picks:

Denver Broncos (+1800) 1u | San Francisco 49ers (+1700) 1u | 

My favorite bet for a Super Bowl winner has to be my Denver Broncos bet at +1800. After a stellar offseason acquiring Pro Bowl/Super Bowl QB, Russell Wilson, the Broncos are set up to win now. Besides having one of the best QBs in the league, they also possess some of the youngest weapons in the league including 22-year-old RB Javonte Williams, 23-year-old WR Jerry Jeudy, 26-year-old WR Courtland Sutton, and 23-year-old WR KJ Hamler. Besides just those young stars named, the Broncos also have veteran and proven RB Melvin Gordon, and WR Tim Patrick. Besides a stacked offensive unit, the Broncos always have a sneaky good defense as they allowed only 243 points this past season. I’d also like to add that going off the trend for the past two seasons has been when a Pro-Bowl QB is traded or signs to a new team, that new team has won. Brady with the Bucs during the 2020-21 season and Stafford with the Rams during the 2021-22 season. Will Wilson with the Broncos 2022-23 end up in a Super Bowl? I believe so. #FollowThe Numbers

My second Super Bowl bet is the San Francisco 49ers at +1700. If this team got to the NFC Championship with a mid-at-best QB, Jimmy G, I sure as hell believe they get to the Super Bowl with ease having Trey Lance leading the way. If this kid is what everyone thinks he is, hop on the San Fran wagon now. This bet also ties into one of my MVP bets as you can read below.

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

Baltimore Ravens (+2200) 0.5 u

JIGO’s Picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650) 2u | Kansas City Chiefs (+950) 1u | Baltimore Ravens (+1850) 1u 

AFC East Division

-NFL Division Winners-

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

Buffalo Bills (-190)

JIGO’s Pick:

New England Patriots (+400)

AFC North Division

Emperor’s Pick:

Baltimore Ravens (+165) 1u

Getting the Baltimore Ravens at plus money is absurd! Sure this division may be stacked with some of the best young talent and the reigning AFC Champions, but in my honest opinion, the Bengals season last year was a fluke. The Ravens are bound for a bounce-back season after a shaky unhealthy season last year. The Steelers are currently rebuilding with Big Ben gone and Kenny Pickett most likely backing up Trubisky for most of the year to learn the system. The Cleveland Browns are going to struggle most likely for the first 6 games of the season with Watson out due to suspension. I think this year is the Ravens to lose. They are ultimately a more complete team than Cincinnati. 

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

Baltimore Ravens (+165) 1u

AFC South Division

Emperor’s Pick:

Indianapolis Colts (-140) 1u

Doctor Candi’s Pick:

Indianapolis Colts (-105) 1u

AFC West Division

NFC East Division

Doctor Candi’s Pick:

Philadelphia Eagles (+200)

NFC North Division

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

Minnesota Vikings (+300) 0.5u

I expect the Vikings offense to improve under new head coach Kevin O’Connell, and it feels like the Packers should be trending in the opposite direction with the absence of Davante Adams. I am a believer in Kirk Cousins, advanced stats will tell you he threw 43 money throws – “a pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments” (3rd most), 154 pressured throws (most in the league), and only 27 danger plays (20th in the league). +300 odds imply there is only a 25% chance that the Vikings win the division, and I think there is reason to be more optimistic than that.

NFC South Division

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

New Orleans Saints (+400), 0.25u

Gun to my head, would I pick the Saints to win the division? Probably not! But +400 is a screaming value in a race between two teams who aren’t that far apart. Tom Brady seems to always struggle against New Orleans, and if the Saints can pull off the 2-0  sweep yet again then that could be enough to win the division. The Saints offense is far better off under Jameis than Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill. We can still expect the Bucs to be great, but they will be without Antonio Brown, without Gronk, and Chris Godwin will miss time. Gun to my head I’d lean towards Tampa Bay, but there is certainly some value in taking the Saints at +400 to win the NFC South.

NFC West Division

NFL Win Totals

AFC East Division

JIGO’s Pick:

New England Patriots o8.5 (-130) 1u

AFC North Division

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

Baltimore Ravens o9.5 (-135), 1.5 u

NFC North Division

Doctor Candi’s Picks: 

Minnesota Vikings o8.5 (-130) s1.5u | Green Bay Packers u11.5 (-130) 1.5u | Detroit Lions o6 (-135) 1u

It feels like we have reason to expect every team in the NFC North to get better except for the Green Bay Packers; I expect the Lions to be a top 12 offense this season, and I expect the Vikings’ offense to improve under the new head coach Kevin O’Connell, and the Bears’ coaching can seemingly only improve from Matt Nagy, and then you have the Packers get rid of Davante Adams. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings win the division this year, and I certainly don’t agree with Green Bay being projected to win 3 more games than Minnesota in the regular season.  

NFC South Division

Emperor’s Picks:

New Orleans Saints o8.5 Wins (-110) 1u | Carolina Panthers o6.5 Wins (-110)

Doctor Candi’s Pick: 

New Orleans Saints o8 Wins (-135) 1u

NFL Teams to Make/Miss the Playoffs

Emperor’s Picks:

Denver Broncos to Make the Playoffs (-135) 2u | New Orleans Saints to Make the Playoffs (+120) 1u | Tennessee Titans to Miss the Playoffs (-115) 1u | New York Giants to Make the Playoffs (+240) 1u | New York Jets to Make the Playoffs (+600) .5u

NFL Awards- 

MVP

Emperor’s Picks: 

Trey Lance (+5000) .5u | Zach Wilson (+15000) .5u | Lamar Jackson (+2200) .5u

As mentioned before with my Super Bowl bet on the 49ers, of course, I’m on the Trey Train. Something about the second-year quarterbacks always gets my blood flowing. With placing Jimmy G on the trade block and the contract extension of Deebo Samuel, this team has proclaimed they are in on Trey Lance as their QB1. Why I love Lance as an MVP pick is not only does he have one of the deadliest Wide backs in the league, Lance’s game with the 49ers is going to be so versatile. Unlike most QBs in the league, he can pass and run the ball. While adding onto the fact that the team is going to win many games, I think Lance at +5000 is a great value. 

How could I not throw money on Zach Wilson MVP at +15000?!? First off that value is absurd for an upcoming team that actually possesses numerous offensive weapons. Elijah Moore, Chris Olave, Braxton Berrios, and CJ Uzmonah? Are you kidding me? This kid is surrounded by a plethora amount of talent. As I mentioned above with my Lance MVP bet, I am for sure a sucker for the second-year MVP QB pick. But besides that, I think Wilson being valued at +15000 is just absurd. I was tempted to throw a whole unit on this bet, but always have to manage my bankroll smartly. With that being said, I urge anyone that reads this to sprinkle on the Milf Hunter. 

My third and final pick for MVP is Lamar Jackson. The amount of disrespect thrown towards this man this offseason is just disgusting. He has only improved his [assing game throughout his young career and endured some injuries last season. With that being said, Jackson is an MVP-caliber player as we have seen before, and having the ability to be efficient on the ground in the air makes him more lethal than other quarterbacks in the MVP conversation. Most definitely would encourage those betting Futures on the MVP award to sprinkle at least something on Lamar. 

Doctor Candi’s Picks:

Lamar Jackson (+2200) 0.5 u

This bet to me is by far the best value on the board. I still believe we have not seen Lamar Jackson at his peak. Advanced stats indicate that Jackson has improved as a passer; last season he ranked 14th in accuracy rating, 12th in pressure completion percentage, and 14th in red zone completion percentage. Keep in mind, that Lamar Jackson struggled through injury and illness for most of last season and it feels like many have written him off to some extent. At the start of last season, Lamar was playing at an MVP level and the Ravens were one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Expect a healthy Lamar Jackson to continue his dominance as a runner, and expect him to continue to improve as a passer under an improved offensive line. Lamar Jackson deserves to be in the MVP conversation with guys like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, etc. because he is an elite talent. 

JIGO’s Picks:

 Patrick Mahomes (+700) 1u | Justin Herbert (+900) 1u

OPOY

Doctor Candi’s Picks: 

Justin Jefferson (+3000), 0.25 u | Christian McCaffrey (+2500), 0.25 u

JIGO’s Picks: 

Justin Jefferson (+2200) .5u

DPOY

JIGO’s Picks: 

Micah Parsons (+850) .5u

Coach of the Year

JIGO’s Picks: 

Mike McDaniel (+1550) .5u | John Harbaugh (+2300) .5u 

CPOY

Doctor Candi’s Picks: 

Travis Etienne (+3300), 0.25 u | Christian McCaffrey (+1200) 0.25 u

These guys might not be my first and second choice for this award, but this value is too good to pass up. It doesn’t exactly make sense to me that Derrick Henry’s odds sit at +350 while Christian McCaffrey’s odds are listed at +1200. Henry was present for half of last season while CMC only played 2 games. I believe that CMC is the best running back in football when healthy, and I think his odds should be virtually the same as Derrick Henry’s. Travis Etienne’s injury robbed him of any opportunity to win OROTY last season but playing at that type of level this season would certainly put him in the conversation for CPOTY. I do not think he would necessarily to outperform Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey to win this award, but if he can post numbers similar to Najee Harris last season and none of the QB candidates (Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston) are overly impressive, then I do believe Etienne has a good shot!

JIGO’s Picks: 

Christian McCaffrey (+650) | Jameis Winston (+455)

OROY

Emperor’s Picks: 

George Pickens (+5000) .5u

Doctor Candi’s Picks: 

Jameson Williams (+2000) .25 u

When we are trying to predict the offensive rookie of the year award winner, it is a combination of talent and opportunity/landing spot. The 2021 NFL draft consisted of generational talent at both the WR and TE positions in Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts, and Chase won the award. 2020 was the year of the quarterbacks, and Justin Herbert won the award. This year is slightly more difficult to predict but I am confident that Jameson Williams is the best talent at the WR position of his class. Sure, WRs like Sky Moore, Chris Olave, and Christian Watson, Treylon Burks, Drake London, Garrett Wilson all had solid landing spots and should see an immediate role in their offenses. But the same holds true for Jameson Williams; Detroit did not trade up to select Williams at the 12th overall pick for no reason. Detroit might be a bad team, but that is mainly on the defensive end; I am projecting them to be a top 12 offense this year, and if they are playing from behind that will only work in Williams’ favor. The only concern with Williams is his health, coming off a torn ACL. I am expecting him to miss 2-3 games at most at the beginning of the season, which should not significantly impact his chances of winning OROTY. At +2000 odds, that to me is absolutely ridiculous for the clear-cut #1 talent at the WR position. 

JIGO’s Picks: 

Breece Hall (+750) | George Pickens (+2700) 

DROY

JIGO’s Picks: 

Derek Stingley Jr. (+950) 

-Stat Leaders-

QB Stats

Doctor Candi’s Picks:

🔒Derek Carr o4300.5 passing yards (-112)🔒 2u

Carr threw for 4,804 yards and averaged 282.6 passing yards/game last season. Keep in mind that Darren Waller missed a lot of time and wasn’t really 100% even when he returned, Henry Ruggs III was arrested, and Hunter Renfrow was Carr’s only reliable target for a good portion of last season. Now, you have a healthy Darren Waller, bring in Davante Adams, and still have Hunter Renfrow as a really solid 3rd option. The situation for Carr will be exponentially better and they are going to throw the ball more this season; Derek Carr passing for over 4300.5 yards feels like a no-brainer.

Kirk Cousins o4150.5 passing yards (-112) 2u

I am personally a believer in Kirk Cousins, but you really don’t have to be in order to fall in love with this bet. Last season Kirk passed for 4,221 yards despite missing 1 game. Their receiving core is exactly the same as last season and we can expect this offense to improve under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who has made it very clear that he wants to throw the ball more. Don’t overthink this one!

Jared Goff o22.5 passing TDs (-112, FD) 2u

I like Goff’s throw for over 3800 yards on the season, but I think this angle is just a little bit better. Moreover, we’re taking advantage of an overreaction to the past because for the last 3 seasons, Goff has gone under this total. I don’t think people are aware of how good this Detroit offense is going to be; yes, it’s still the Lions but we can finally trust the coaching staff, they’re defense is still horrendous so they’ll be playing from behind, and they have an elite receiving core. I am projecting the Lions to be a top 12 offense and be involved in several shootout-type games. When in the red zone, T.J. Hockenson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, DJ Chark, and D’Andre Swift out of the backfield. Last season, the Lions had 23 passing TDs (Goff threw 19 of them) and 12 rushing TDs. Their receiving core has only gotten better whereas their backfield is still the same, so there is no reason to go more run-heavy in the red zone; we should expect a similar passing-to-rushing TD ratio on a larger total than the 35 TDs last season. If Goff can stay healthy, 22.5 passing touchdowns feel like the absolute floor for what we can expect. Lay down the hammer on this one! 

-RB Stats-

Doctor Candi’s Picks: 

James Connor u9.5 TD (-120) 2u

Connor had 15 last year which will obviously regress but 9.5 is still way too high. James Connor was not very efficient last year, He ranked #62 in true yards per carrying, which removes runs greater than 10 yards. There is reason to believe he will not be featured as heavily in the red zone this season. Last year they simply didn’t have any other RB they felt comfortable giving red zone snaps, and Kyler’s injuries prevented him from rushing for lots of touchdowns. This led to James Connor being featured in the red zone. The Cardinals do not want to have to rely so heavily on Connor in the red zone this season, which is likely why they brought in Darrel Williams, who was very efficient in the red zone last season. Williams ranked #14 among RBs in yards created per touch and #20 in red zone touches and recorded 6 rushing touchdowns. I think it will be a similar deal to Green Bay where they trust both backs inside the red zone and will probably just throw in the fresher of the two. You can grab Aaron Jones at over 6.5 TD and AJ Dillon at over 5.5 TDs, yet somehow the line for James Connor – who I think is less talented than both GB running backs – sits at 9.5. 

Elijah Mitchell under 950.5 rushing yards (-110) 2u

You can never be too confident which back Shanahan will feature, it feels like a guessing game every year. The 49ers could wind up rotating 2-3 backs or they could wind up featuring some other running back that seemingly pops up out of nowhere. Who knows, maybe Trey Sermon will finally get an opportunity. And if Shanahan does decide to feature Mitchell, then he might just get run into the ground which could result in an injury. When is the last time we’ve seen a 49ers backfield that wasn’t banged up for a full season? And even if Shanahan does feature Elijah Mitchell and he stays healthy, Trey Lance is going to eat into those carries. With all that being said, Elijah Mitchell recorded 963 rushing yards last season so 950.5 rushing yards feels pretty close to his ceiling this season. 

Najee Harris over 1100.5 rush yds (-112) 1u

(See most rushing yard explanation)

Travis Etienne over 1025.5 scrimmage yds (-130) 2u

(See CPOTY explanation) 

AJ Dillon o750.5 rushing yds (-112) 1u

This is mainly a bet on Green Bay using Dillon as the primary rusher and using Jones in a little more of a receiving role. Green Bay will need to replace some of the vacant targets after losing Davante Adams, and we know Rodgers only likes throwing to guys that he has built a rapport with. Moreover, Dillon should see a slight increase in his role but he doesn’t really have to in order to hit this target number. Dillon rushed 187 times for 803 yards last season with Jones rushing 171 times for 799 yards. 750 rushing yards feels awfully low for AJ Dillon this season.

-WR Stats-

Doctor Candi’s Picks:

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 825.5 rec yds (-112)

Gabriel Davis over799.5 rec yds (-112)

Tee Higgins over 75.5 receptions (-115)

Darnell Mooney over 75.5 receptions (-110), and over 900.5 rec yds (-112)

Dotson over 611.5 rec yds (-115)

Courtland Sutton over 900.5 rec yds (-105)

Mike Williams over 950.5 rec yds (-112), o6.5 rec TDs (-140, DK)

Devonta Smith o825.5 rec yds (-112, FD)

Hunter Renfrow o775.5 rec yds (-112)

Michael Pittman o1000.5 rec yds (-112)

Adam Thielen o750.5 rec yds (-110) and o7.5 rec TDs (-110)

Terry McLaurin o1000.5 rec yds (-115)

Robert Woods o750.5 receiving yards (-112)

-TE Stats-

Emperor’s Picks:

Kyle Pitts o4.5 TDs (-115) 1u

Doctor Candi put me on this lock. All the credit to him, but this is a big unit bet for me this season. One of the best tight ends in the league and only playing a season. I expect dominance and wouldn’t be surprised if this over hits halfway through the season. Read Candi’s explanation below!

Doctor Candi’s Picks:

🔒Kyle Pitts o4.5 TDs (-115)🔒 2u

Last season Pitts had 15 red zone targets, but lots of missed opportunities led to only 1 TD being converted. To put that into perspective, Gronk had 12 red zone targets for 6 touchdowns, Kelce had 16 for 10 touchdowns, and Hunter Henry had 17 for 9 touchdowns. Yes, we don’t know how the QB play will shake out in Atlanta, and it will likely be à downgrade from Matt Ryan. But Atlanta will be playing from behind quite often and without an RB they can really trust, that should force them to throw the ball a lot in the red zone. Expect Pitts to be the beneficiary of that and expect some positive regression from his 1 TD last season. Not to mention, the tight end position is perhaps the most difficult to produce as a rookie, with Pitts being only the 2nd TE in NFL history to break 1000 receiving yards. Kyle Pitts is a generational talent and with a full year under his belt and Russell Gage out of the picture, he is only going to get more involved in this offense. I’m projecting 15+ red zone targets for Kyle Pitts again this season, which should be enough to smash his total of 4.5 touchdowns! Consider this a hammer spot!