UFC 285: Preview & Picks for Degenerates
The greatest two month stretch of sports is finally here and it all starts with UFC 285.
This upcoming Saturday, March 4th, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will be putting on a show for the ages. The legendary Jon “Bones” Jones makes his return to the octagon after being gone for nearly three years from the sport. We also have a Women’s Flyweight Title bout, the return of Cody Garbrandt, a Bo Nickal debut, and much more.
Below our team of degenerate gamblers, ReRackPicks, breaks down their top picks for UFC 285.
*Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane*
Heavyweight Title Bout: 11:30 PM E.T.
Matchup on Paper
| Jon Jones | vs | Ciryl Gane |
| 35 | Age | 32 |
| 6’4” | Height | 6’4” |
| 204 lbs | Weight | 247 lbs. |
| 84.5 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 24-1-0 | Record | 11-1-0 |
Doctor Candi’s Pick: Cyril Gane ML (+150) 1u
The last time I bet on a Gane fight I faded him and put my money on Ngannou. I think everyone was surprised by Ngannou’s endurance. No one expected Ngannou’s path of victory to be by controlling the fight on the ground and winning by points. So it seems counterintuitive that I would bow all of the sudden back Gane against Jones. But Gane opened up at -152 and now we’re getting him at +150. Sure, there are other factors influencing this line, public betting is a huge factor.
While I don’t agree with Gane being priced at -152, I do think it should be closer to a PK line. Betting Jones at -170 is assuming no risk due to rust or a change in division, and the fact that anyone can see value in that line is beyond me. The +150 is too juicy, I’ll see you at the finish line.
JIGO’s Pick: Cyril Gane ML (+145) 2u
I know everybody and their mothers are taking Jon Jones ML in this fight, but like always I’m going against the public. Why? Well two reasons
1. Value
2. Jon Jone is aged and fighting a weight class up. People may have forgotten because it has been so long since a Jon Jones fight but Jones is a true Light Heavyweight. He’s fighting a weight class up to Gane who can do it all, Gane is quick and he’s huge, honestly convinced his leg kicks can break a car.
It’s for sure going to be a dog fight and I’m interested to see what Jones can do back in the octagon.
Emperor’s Pick: Jon Jones ML (-155) 8u
Call me a sucker I do not care. Do you recall the last time Jon Jones ever had a line this close to even? Well it was back in 2009 when he was actually plus money. His first two fights in the UFC… 14 years ago.
Of course I’m taking Jones in this fight. No disrespect to Gane, but Jones is just a better fighter in every single category (can make the debate for striking).
Now I just hope he walks out to Metro & Future’s banger “Superhero”.
Shep’s Pick: Jon Jones ML (-170) 2u
Jon Jones is him. Even though the dude has toothpicks for legs he is a beast. No one is in his league and if you’re not taking his ML you hate free money.
*Valentina Shevchenko vs Alex Grasso*
Women’s Flyweight Title Bout: 11:00 PM E.T.
Matchup on Paper
| Valentina Shevchenko | vs | Alex Grasso |
| 34 | Age | 29 |
| 5’5” | Height | 5’5” |
| 125lbs | Weight | 125.50lbs |
| 66.5 inches | Reach | 66 inches |
| 23-3-0 | Record | 15-3-0 |
Doctor Candi’s Pick: Valentina Shevchenko to win by KO, TKO, Submission, or DQ (-140) 1.4u
Shevchenko’s ML is too pricey for me but I don’t see this fight going the distance, so I think this alternative is the right play. I think knockout is the most likely path to victory, but I’ll take the submission option as a safety blanket.
JIGO’s Picks: Under 4.5 (-140) 5u | Valentina Shevchenko to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+175) 5u
ASSASSIN! Valentina Shevchenko is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC (MEN and WOMEN). She’s an absolute assassin and can do it all in the octagon. Would be shocked to see this fight go past 1.5 rounds.
Emperor’s Pick: Valentina Shevchenko to win by KO, TKO, Submission, or DQ (-138) 1.5u
Rumor has it she’s shagging Jonny Bones Jones on the side. Do you think she’s not gonna want to impress her mans while fighting on the same card just 30 minutes before?!?
Don’t bet against ‘The Bullet. She’s winning this one easily within 5 rounds.
Shep’s Pick: Valentina Shevchenko to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+175) 1u
I honestly have no idea who any of these chicks are so if I’m gonna bet on chicks fighting, I’m riding with the Russian.
*Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov*
Welterweight Bout: 10:30 PM E.T.
Matchup on Paper
| Geoff Neal | vs | Shavkat Rakhmonov |
| 32 | Age | 28 |
| 5’11” | Height | 6’1” |
| 171 lbs | Weight | 170.50 lbs |
| 75 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 15-4-0 | Record | 16-0-0 |
Doctor Candi’s Pick: Geoff Neale by KO/TKO/DQ (+850) 0.5u
Taking a shot in the dark here! While I love Shavkat and admit that he is the deserving favorite, I think his line is way too juiced up. Geoff has no chance of winning by submission and with Shavkat’s ability to dominate this fight on the ground, I can’t really see Geoff’s ability to win by points if this were to go the distance. So I think Geoff’s only path to victory is by knockout. I’d price this bet at around +500 so I’ll take my chances.
JIGO’s Pick: Geoff Neal (+345) 1u & Over 1.5 (-155) 1u
Absolutely hate this pick as I think Rakhmonov is one of those Russian fighters who is just built different but Geoff is my guy, I’m betting heart over mind with this one. Watch out for the Geoff Neal KO Win.
Emperor’s Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov by KO, TKO, Submission, or DQ (-150) 1.5u
Shavkat is 16-0 in his professional record and has finished all 16 fights. That is the most outrageous stat in all of sports.
With that being said, of course I’m taking him to finish this within 15 minutes.
Shep’s Pick: Geoff Neal To Win By Decision (+900) 1u
I’ve got a fever and the only prescription is Neal by decision. I saw this cashing in my dream last night… Trust
*Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner*
Lightweight Bout: 10:00 PM E.T.
Matchup on Paper
| Mateusz Gamrot | vs | Jalin Turner |
| 32 | Age | 27 |
| 5’10” | Height | 6’3” |
| 156 lbs | Weight | 155.50 lbs |
| 70.5 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 21-2-0 | Record | 13-5-0 |
Emperor’s Pick: Jalin Turner ML (+140) 1u
Gamrot is going to be a very hard test for Turner. With that being said, I’m taking the plus money just off the straight facts that Turner is younger, taller, and has a near seven inch reach advantage.
*Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett*
Middleweight: 9:30 PM E.T.
Matchup on Paper
| Bo Nickal | vs | Jamie Pickett |
| 27 | Age | 34 |
| 6’1” | Height | 6’2” |
| 180.50 lbs | Weight | 180.50 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 82 inches |
| 3-0-0 (Debut) | Record | 13-8-0 |
Doctor Candi’s Pick: Bo Nickal To Win By Submission (-165) 1.65u
Don’t overthink this one.
JIGO’s Pick: Over 1.5 (+230) 2u
Still not buying into the whole Bo Nickal hype just yet. Yes he’s lethal on the ground with submission, and his fighting history with three national wrestling championships under his belt. But Jamie Pickett is still a dude and I think his experience in the octagon will be a factor for the over to hit. Odds are trash on this one so take the over and enjoy the fight.
Shep’s Pick: Bo Nickal to Win By Submission in Round 1 (-105) 5u
Bo Nickal is dominant. He knows how to grapple and showed he knows how to stand and box in the Dana White Contender Series. This one’s gonna be over quick.
*Prelim Picks*
Doctor Candi’s Picks:
–Cody Garbrandt ML (-175) 1.75u
Cody has left public bettors with a bad taste in their mouths. As someone who was able to avoid getting burned by Cody in the past, I’m going to view this line as a gift and a buy-low opportunity. Cody should have some extra motivation with his career essentially on the line. On paper, I think Cody should be -250 to -300, so I’ll take the value.
–Marc-Andre Barriault to win by Submission or KO/TKO/DQ (-122) 1.22u
Every card I look for that one fight that I think is going to be an absolute bloodbath. Here it is! I love Barriault by knockout at +245 but I also feel like he has a significant edge if this one were to go the distance. Marquez appears to be a trendy dog in this one and while it wouldn’t surprise me, I do think Barriault is the better and more experienced fighter and a deserving favorite.
JIGO’s Picks:
Every single underdog for value, trying to build up a bankroll for the Main Cards
HUNGRY DOG RUNS FASTER!
–Trevin Jones (+145) 1u
Jones is a lethal striker who is amazing with counter attacks. With the size advantage in this fight, I’m taking Trevin Jones. Also love the value.
–Derek Brunson (+180) 1u
Honestly, this is a bold pick… but the value is value. Brunson is a true knockout artist with a wrestling background so I think his skills will be able to withhold Du Plessis in this one. Take Brunson by decision if you want better odds.
- –Viviane Araujo (-110) 1u
- –Julian Marquez (+120) 1u
- –Kenan Song (+485) 1u
- –Mana Martinez (+215) 1u
- –Jessica Penne (+245) 1u
- –Da’Mon Blackshear (+345) 1u
- –Esteban Ribovics (+200) 1u
SHOTS IN THE DARK … I don’t really know much about the first 7 fights in the prelim/early prelim. So as said before I’m just taking every underdog hoping I can build that bankroll to bet heavy on the main card. Cmon Underdogs.
Emperor’s Picks:
–Trevin Jones ML (+135) 1u
This is more of a bet against Cody Garbrandt. I’ve gotten burned by this man a plethora amount of times and I’m sick of it.
*UFC 285 Parlays*
Emperor’s Parlay:
- –Dricus Du Plessis ML + Ian Garry ML + Bo Nickal ML (-130) 1u
Shep’s Parlay:
- –Jon Jones ML+ Valentina Shevchenko ML + Bo Nickal v Jamie Pickett u1.5 Rounds (+140) 2u