2023-24 NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Round Preview & Picks for Degenerates
Folks, we are officially 2 Weeks away from the Super Bowl. Sure the boys have been getting shredded these NFL Playoffs but this weekend is a new slate.
Divisional Round Card Weekend Recap:
- Jigo: 2-3 | 0u
- Santi: 2-3 | -1.13u
- Doc Candi: 6-4 | -0.26u
- Emperor: 4-6 | -4.97u
*ReRackPicks: 14-16 | -6.36u
Yeah last week was a rough one but the past is the past. We move on.
Below the gentlemen of ReRack Picks share their picks for the Conference Championship Games.
Operation Bankrupt Vegas begins now.
Sunday, January 28th 2024
3:00 PM: Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Chiefs 11-8-0 ATS
- Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 20 games
- Baltimore Ravens 12-6-0 ATS
- Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games
Santi’s Picks: Lamar Jackson o10.5 rush attempts (-105 @BetMGM) 1u
In Lamar’s 5 career playoff starts, he’s gone over this line in 3 games. The Chiefs are great at pressuring opposing QBs with their variety of blitz packages and their dominant defensive front – this means Lamar will have to use his legs even more. The Ravens playbook at this point will have 0 limitations, Lamar could run as much as he wants to if it’s working. The key piece to this bet is that the Chiefs LB Willie Gay, who serves as the normal QB spy, is hurt and potentially inactive. It’s also a known thing to try to keep guys like Mahomes off the field for as long as possible, if the Ravens can succeed in the run game, they probably win this game.
Emperor Picks: Under 44.5 (-110) 1u | Lamar Jackson o199.5 Passing Yards (-170) 1u | OBJ o20.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1u
The Public is loving the Over for this game and somehow the line dropped half a point. Something is clearly very sus here. Feel like a loser betting unders, but…
For both props, I like like them (not Love like my Kicker Prop for next game). Lamar will be forced to throw the ball Sunday and I’m confident he can throw for at least 200. With the OBJ play, as I said before the Ravens will be throwing the ball ,OBJ can easily clear this with one big catch. OBJ has only not cleared over 20 Receiving Yards 5 times this season. Tomorrow he clears.
Love the props, feel like an absolute loser taking the under but it is what it is.
Jigo Picks: Kansas City Chiefs +4 (-110) 2u | Kansas City Chiefs ML (+180) 1u | Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+120) .5u | Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime TD (+400) .5u
I am on the Chiefs +4 and ML solely for the reason that I do not want to bet against them in the playoffs. It Mahomes and it’s a + sign… you would be dumb not to take those odds.
For Isiah Pacheco & OBJ it’s just a gut feeling really, no rhyme or reason to it. Tail at your own risk.
Doc Candi Picks: Ravens -3 (-120) 1u | SGP: Ravens +4.5, under 53.5, Kelce 25+ receiving yards (-134) 1u | Lamar Jackson over 211.5 passing yards (-110) 1u
I’m willing to die on this hill. Over the summer I placed bets on Lamar Jackson to win MVP, the Ravens to win the AFC championship, and the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, and I have the receipts. With that being said, my mind was made up right when the line opened and the fact that this line has moved to 4 makes me even more confident. I am aware that it is Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the playoffs, but Lamar Jackson is elite and John Harbaugh and the Ravens’ coaching staff has been incredible. Baltimore is the team entering with a chip on their shoulder and this crowd is going to be electric. The Chiefs have certainly looked better in the postseason compared to the regular season this year but the Ravens are the better team, they’ve shown it all year, and I’m willing to lay the points with them. I am very confident in the SGP as well. I trust Baltimore’s defense to make life difficult for Mahomes, draw a few turnovers and win some of these redzone battles. And then Kelce for 25 I think is a free square, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes under his actual line but he has such a low floor, Mahomes is going to get the ball to him a few times even if he has to force it to him. For my last play, Lamar Jackson over 211.5 passing yards. Last week, Lamar played an incredible game but he didn’t need to throw the ball as they were winning comfortably by the end of the 3rd quarter and Houston had no answers for stopping him on the ground. I think Steve Spagnuolo forces Lamar to beat them through the air, and I also think Lamar is more than capable of doing that. Lamar could easily have 10+ rush attempts for 50+ yards but I’d be surprised if he runs for 100 yards again. Kansas City should be able to keep this game competitive, and if Mahomes is able to hit on big plays that should force Baltimore to stay aggressive. And even if the Ravens are leading by double digits they are well aware that no lead is safe against Mahomes, so I expect Lamar to stay aggressive and force the issue.
Shep’s Picks: Lamar Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+105) 2u | Harrison Butker o2.5 PAT Made (+140) 1u | Kansas City Chiefs +4 (DraftKings Current Line) 1u
Why couldn’t the Bills just kill Pat Mahomes. The Chiefs have the weakest team they’ve had in years and still managed to make it to the Conference Championship. I want so badly to see them get blown out but with Lamar’s playoff record I have a feeling the chiefs win this game. Also, Lamar Anytime TD is simply free money.
6:30 PM: Detroit Lions (+7) @ San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Betting Trends
- Detroit Lions 13-6-0 ATS
- Detroit Lions 12-7 Game Totals (O-U)
- Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games
- San Francisco 49ers 9-9-0 ATS
- San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home
Santi’s Picks: Purdy/Goff o530.5 Combined Pass Yards (-110) 2u | Brock Purdy pass over 30.5 pass attempts (-110) 1u
You gotta beat the Lions through the air, that’s exactly what Purdy is about to do. The Lions have not had an opposing QB throw for less than 31 times since December 2nd against the Saints (Carr had 22 attempts and left the game with an entire quarter left due to injury). The Lions have a great run defense which will further emphasize the 49ers inclusion of the pass plays. As a cherry on top, the Lions have a great offense that should somewhat be able to keep up with San Francisco, furthermore improving the possibility of more passing plays.
Emperor Picks: Over 52 (-110) 1u | Brock Purdy o30.5 Pass Attempt (-125) 1u | Brandon Aiyuk o4.5 Recptions (-155) 1u | Michael Badgley o5.5 Kicking Points (-125) 1u | Brock Purdy o2.5 Passing TDs (+210) .5u
Two top tier offenses in a passing duel means one thing, Points. Complete gut feeling and emotional play here, but I think it comes to fruition.
Next play #TailSanti. Tailing him on Purdy Over Passing Attempts . The research checks out (just read above) and facing a solid run defense, Purdy is going to be airing it out. Of course with that being the fact, I think it’s only fair to sprinkle on Purdy o2.5 Passing TDs. With a boatload of offensive weapons and him going to be throwing the ball, I can see Purdy definitely hitting 3 Passing TDs. It’s definitely worth a shot in my opinion if you can get it above +200. #PurdyDay.
I’d also like to shoutout the Kicker Guru Shep for putting me onto kicker bets. I absolutely love my Badgley play. 49ers Defense gives up roughly 16 PPG. Clearly they are forcing stopping teams in field goal range forcing them to kick. And that checks out. After looking at some stats, the 49ers D has given up an average of 6.15 Kicking Points per game this year. This is by far my favorite prop for Sunday.
Jigo Picks: Detroit Lions +7 (+100) 2u | Detroit Lions ML (+290) 1u | Amon Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+120) .5u
I do believe that the Lions will make this an interesting game w/ the 49ers although all of America will be betting on the 49ers. I love a good underdog story and what the Lions are doing right now after almost two decades of misery and heartbreak. I think this will be the year they can make it. Dan Campbell is such a football guy and he will have that team ready to roll on Sunday night.
When the Lions score it will be with Amon Ra… Might not be the first TD but he will get in the endzone. BOOK IT!
Doc Candi Picks: Brock Purdy o275.5 Passing Yards (-110) .5u | Juan Jennings o17.5 Receiving Yards (-110) .5u
SGP: 49ers ML + over 44.5 (-137) 1u
SGP: Purdy 200+ passing yds, Goff 175+ passing yds, Laporta 3+ receptions, Aiyuk 40+ receiving yds, Kittle 25+ receiving yds (-125) 1u
SGP: Purdy o277.5 passing yds, Aiyuk o69.5 receiving yds, 49ers ML (+250) 0.5u
Looking for an edge in this game was difficult but I would lean towards San Francisco and the over. When you rank the 4 remaining QBs most would put Brock Purdy at the bottom of the list yet I am projecting him to have the most passing yards and the most TD’s. The Lions have proven to be really good at limiting rushing yards. By no means do I expect the 49ers to abandon the run game, but they’ve given Purdy the green light to air it out a long time ago and Purdy should have a lot of success in doing so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdy has 300+ yards for 3+ TDs in this one. I know America wants to see Detroit in the big game as do I, but I think San Francisco is better at just about every position and will ultimately be too much for that defense to handle.
Shep’s Picks: SF 49ers -7 (-112) 1u
I want the Lions to win. All of America wants the Lions to no longer be a poverty franchise. Unfortunately that will not be happening tomorrow. The 49ers are simply too good. As long as there are no injuries it should be an easy win for them at home.
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