The world is healing. We The People have finally gotten a 12 Team College Football Playoff. If you aren’t bricked up for this weekend’s first round, like us, please seek help.

Below the fellas break down and preview all four games of the College Football Playoff First Round.

Operation Bankrupt Vegas begins now…

SATURDAY GAMES

*SMU @ Penn State| 12:00 PM E.T. on TNT/Max*

King Wills Picks:

Penn State -8.5 (-112) 2u

I know I said we liked the dogs this week, but obviously we’re not playing all dogs (we play winners in this column).

The argument against this play is the disappointing nature of Penn State in big games and their inability to compete with a mobile qb. News Flash… SMU isn’t a big game and they played Dillon Gabriel last week. Penn State this year struggled with the likes of Ohio State and Oregon, but surprisingly in my opinion hung around in those games.

Penn State is in no position to overlook the Mustangs, with a potentially “easier” matchup looming in the second round (this is untrue but we can discuss at a later date). With no trap game element, a home environment and an opponent who may just be happy to be there, I see Penn State starting the day off with a bang. 

This may be a big number but James Franklin has had success covering the number as a favorite at home this season. Look for Penn State to have a major edge in the trenches and get an excellent performance from their athletic linebacking corp that has heard the news about the “dynamic Kevin Jennings”. While the SMU qb has posed an immense challenge for much of his ACC foe, the young man will be playing against NFL talent at the middle linebacking spot for Penn State.

The Nittany Lions should advance to the real trap game against a motivated Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos. Expect a double digit win from their athletic linebacking 6 seed.

Jigo’s Picks

Penn State -8.5 (-110) 1u

Never in a million years would I expect to see SMU take on Penn State in Happy Valley but that’s the glory of the new 12-man playoff. Penn State played two great games this year against OSU and Oregon but as always James Franklin couldn’t win the “big one” . This game in Happy Valley is not a “big one”. Therefore I see Penn State handling business soundly.

Ric’s Picks:

Penn State -8.5 (-112) 1u

Both teams come into this game off a tough loss in their respective conference championship games. SMU has been solid all year and has had a high-producing offense, but I worry about the schedule they’ve played. Their two losses come to the only two teams worth while on their schedule. On the other hand looking at Penn State, they’ve beaten the teams they have supposed to, and lost to the ones they weren’t expected to win. Combine that with their athletic defense and I actually see this becoming a blow out in Penn States favor which is why I’m laying the 8.5.

Berg’s Picks:

SMU +10.5 (-140) 2u

James Franklin and Penn st might lose this game. Fading him until he proves me wrong.

SMU coming off an insane comeback vs Clemson where they fell short by just 3 points. This will be a close game.

Emperor’s Picks:

Kevin Jennings o246.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115) 1u

All Hail KJ. The Duel Threat Future Heisman candidate has cleared this over in his last 9 games.

If SMU has any shot of staying in this game, or even winning (I believe), it all comes down to KJ. #AllHailKJ

Trust.

Shep’s Picks:

Penn State -9 (-110) 1u

Penn State is looking dominant this year. They had a rough go against Ohio State but the Buckeyes own PSU. In the Big 10 Championship, they held their own against a dominant Oregon team and I think that will carry over against a much weaker SMU team.

*Clemson @ Texas | 4:00 PM E.T. on TNT/Max*

King Wills Picks:

Clemson +11.5 (are you bleeping kidding me dabo 11.5 point dog) (-105) 1.5u

Under 51.5 (Texas’ defense is good and Quinn always shrinks when the lights are bright) (-108) 1.5u

I’ve heard a lot about how Texas is gonna roll because this is the biggest game in Texas history. I remember when it was that Georgia game they lost outright. Then that A&M game when the offense didn’t show up. Then the conference championship when they lost to a backup. I don’t buy any of it. 

Sell the Longhorns. While they may win their first two CFP games outright and find themselves with a matchup against the winner of an OSU Oregon rematch. Don’t get it twisted, they won’t cover a single number along the way. Gimme Clemson to keep this one close and the anemic Texas offense to make it even closer. While I don’t believe Texas will lose this game, I do not believe we will even have to sweat either of these plays. Don’t donate by playing Clemson ML, double your sprinkle money by playing the under in this one!

Doctor Candi’s Picks

• SGP (-125) 1.5u
  • Texas ML
  • Clemson +21.5

I’m trying to find a unique way to handicap each game. I considered taking Clemson with the points, but I just don’t see them pulling the upset. Assuming Texas gets the job done, I think getting the extra 10 points here could be huge. Even if Clemson is getting blown out and trailing by 28 (which I don’t think will happen), the back door garbage time cover opportunity will present itself. 

Jigo’s Picks

Clemson +11 (-110) 1u

*I fucked up and took this line when it first came it out it is now at +12

It may be recency bias from the ACC Championship. Or it could be seeing Dabo iin the College Football Playoffs but I love the Clemson Tigers in this game even though I do not think they can match up with Texas.

Hate him or love him Dabo is one hell of a coach especially when it comes to playoffs. With 10 games under his belt, a 6-4 record and 2 National Championship Rings I believe he will have something planned against Texas…. And it will work. This is the first time Clemson and Texas will meet ever therefore I’m giving Clemson and Dabo the edge in unfamiliarity. +11 or +12 depending on when you bet it is too many points.

Ric’s Picks:

Under 51.5 (-108) 1u

In their first meeting ever, Clemson comes in as the ACC Champ taking on Texas while even after losing in the SEC title game, some say they have the easiest path to a national championship. Clemson is a solid team, and coached very well, but against two SEC teams with actual defenses this year, they’ve put up 17 total points. Texas Defense has been stellar this year allowing the second least amount of yards per game and 2nd least points per game. I do have concerns with Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense, they haven’t looked explosive against better competition and I have concerns about them covering the point spread but with both offenses lacking explosiveness and a top Texas defense I like the under in this game.

Logan’s Picks:

Clemson +11.5 (-105) 1u 

The thesis remains the same as it was for the conference championship. It’s Clemson and Dabo Swinney.

They somehow win these games or in this case at least cover in these games. Everyone hates Dabo which only gives me more confidence in this pick. I don’t know how they will do it but they will somehow cover. Wouldn’t be surprised if they pull this off and make it to the quarterfinals.

Everyone and their mother is hammering Texas who got the easiest SEC schedule I have ever seen in my life. The only good team they had to play was Georgia and they lost… twice. Texas ain’t made for the big moments, but Dabo been here many times before. Even if they don’t win have faith in them covering.

Go Tigers

Emperor’s Picks:

Over 50.5 (-110) 2u

All I have seen on Twitter and heard from the ReRack boys is that this game is under. We have the only warm-weather game this week and the Texas High School State Championship QB Rematch.

The boys are going to put on a show!

Texas -9.5 (-166) 2u

I’ll be honest I don’t think Clemson should be a two score underdog. I find that absurd with the resume Dabo and the Tigers have in crucial games. It honestly makes no sense to me. And because it doesn’t make sense, of course I’m taking Texas.

Ok cool, Hook Em.

Cade Klubnik o199.5 Passing Yards (-160) 1u

Cade is 11-2 with this over. Seeing such a big point spread makes me take the bait on betting Klubnik’s over here. Vegas thinks Clemson will be down by two scores so it only makes sense Clemson will have to air the ball out.

Not a Clemson guy at all, but I like the play here.

Shep’s Picks:

Texas -12.5 (-110) 1u

Texas is playing great football this year. Arch manning is clearly the better qb but Ewers is can still lead the team. Honestly anyone could probably lead this team to cover. 12.5 is a lot of points but Clemson isn’t all that great. Easy win for Texas.

*Tennessee @ Ohio State | 7:00 PM E.T. on ABC/ESPN*

King Wills Picks:

Tennessee +7.5 (-115) 2u

I would argue these are the two best teams playing in the first round. 

I have heard a lot of noise about how Tenn will be intimated by the cold. I would argue this is crazy talk. Tennessee has all the blue chip interior pieces that Ohio state has (probably the only team in the first round that can say that)

Why is this spread not 3.5, oh yea I forgot the cold weather. This isn’t SMU v Penn State. These are two evenly matched teams, one playing with immense pressure and one with house money. Gimme the 7.5 points here, expect Will Howard to struggle, expect OSU to be 1 dimensional, expect a lower scoring game (DONT PLAY THE TOTAL ITS TOO LOW) and most of all expect Tennessee to win this game outright. The Tennessee QB whose name I cannot spell will cause problems for this Ohio state team if the volunteers can stay in 3rd and manageable. 

Play the ML, hammer the spread. Expect OSU to come out slow and rely on late-game adjustments to come back.

Doctor Candi’s Picks

• SGP (-155) 2u
  • Ohio State ML
  • Dylan Sampson 50+ Rushing Yards

SGPs are my bread and butter. I am confident that OSU will pull out a win after being embarrassed by a Michigan team deprived of talent. I’m not interested in laying the -265 on the ML and I think this Sampson prop is a very safe way to bring this bet down to a favorable price. Even if OSU start to open up that lead and pull away, I don’t think Tennessee will completely abandon the run. Sampson would have to be insanely inefficient to not hit this 50 mark. 

Jigo’s Picks

Ohio State -7 (-120) 5U

All of the pent up anger and hate from their disappointing lose in the Big Game will fuel their fire for an absolute stomping of Tennessee. Now Tennessee is a solid team with an unbelievable run game and solid front line on defense who I could definitely see making some noise in the playoffs; but they are playing the team who has to most to prove to their haters which is many.

Ohio State’s star studded team will win and cover.

Ric’s Picks:

 Ohio State -6.5 (-133) 1u

In the last game of the slate, a disappointed Ohio state team looks to rebound against Tennessee. The way I see it as that everyone is overreacting to the loss against Michigan. It’s one of the biggest rivalry games in all of sports, weird things happen, and to the buckeyes advantage, they won’t play them again. Tennessee has a great rush attack led by Dylan Sampson, but I’m concerned with Nico Iamaleava being able to make plays on the road in a tough environment in cold temperatures they’re not used to.

Logan’s Picks:

Ohio State -7.5 (-105) 1u

This team loses to Michigan and the everyone freaks out. You can’t judge how good a team is based on those rivalry games. Yes it was a bad loss, yes it got them bounced from the big 10 championship, but that was Michigan’s Super Bowl. They literally crashed out after the game getting in fights then having players go on IG live calling Ryan day a bitch nigga. I think this is a statement game from Ohio State simply because Ryan day is coaching for his job and this Ohio State team has very dangerous talent. Never been high on Tennessee at all this season I just think Ohio state wipes the floor with them. O-H-I-O !!!

Berg’s Picks:

Ohio State ML (-260) 3u

Reasoning- After a bad loss in The Game. People forget how insane Ohio states roster is. 

Ryan Day sucks and will prob lose against Oregon again. But Tennessee won’t be a problem for the Buckeyes. Just too much talent on that OSU roster. They will get Judkins and Trevon going early. And that elite defense will keep them in the game no matter how mid Will Howard is

Emperor’s Picks:

Ohio State -6 (-150) 2u

I can’t be the only one cracking up at the OSU ML -260 pick Berg took right? We got a sharp!

That being said, I’m joining the Buckeye train with the boys. As much as I dislike their QB, the team is to talented and after a miserable loss a few weeks ago, I’m expecting a brutal Big 10 curb stomping.

The SEC is not ready for cold brutal weather games.

It was always the Big 10. Gimme the Buckeyes.

Shep’s Picks:

Tennessee +7 (-110) 1u

As a Penn State fan I am clearly showing bias in this pick. Fuck Ryan Day for doing my boy Kyle McCord dirty. I hate Ohio State with every bone in my body. Let’s go Tennessee.

FRIDAY GAME

*Indiana @ Notre Dame | 7:00 PM E.T. on ABC/ESPN*

King Wills Picks:

Indiana +7.5 (-115) 4u

All the sharps are playing the favorites this week, but they aren’t too sharp in my opinion. The big money flooding the markets on the favorites in this first round of the CFP is simply nothing more than an over correction from the mistakes made conference championship week. Lucky for us, these bets were 5-1 in the conference championships; so I do not see any benefit in adjusting the perspective of how we see the board.

Notre Dame could possibly be the most overvalued team in the CFP. With a resume built on the backs of the service academies, we can ask the same question about the favorite and underdog in this matchup. Neither of these teams have have beaten any great teams or passed the eye test convincingly in the biggest spots (unless you count a late runaway against rival USC for the Irish, or the blowouts of bottom barrel B10 teams for the Hoosiers).

The key to college football is coaching, and I believe the Hoosiers have the edge here. Cignetti has been in this situation before with his James Madison dukes just last year (a team a lot of his current players were on). This means IU has more experience working in the postseason with extended rest compared to the young inexperienced Marcus Friedman.

While much of the Pros expect the favored ND to run Indiana off the field, I see a live dog. Sure Indiana looked slow and overmatched against a Buckeyes team with 5 stars out the wahzoo, but the Irish never have prospects comparable to the blue bloods.

The prestige of ND and the STILL undervalued nature of the IU Hoosiers has led to an inflated line. I believe this spread should be closer 5. The number is good, the coaching matchup is good and the talent gap is overstated. HAMMER IU on the spread and sprinkle the ML because these boys are live dogs.

Doctor Candi’s Picks

• SGP (-113) 1u
  • Notre Dame TT o19.5
  • Indiana TT o16.5
  • Jeremiyah Love 40+ Rushing Yards

I’ve found myself dying on a hill fading Indiana these past couple months. I’m going to continue to fade them because I don’t believe they are good at football. The spread and total to me indicates that the Irish should be able to score at will, and maybe even benefit from some short fields. I would also consider Notre Dame TT o30.5 here. I’ll see you at the winners table! 

Jigo’s Picks

Notre Dame -7 (-120) 1u

I think Riley Leonard’s dual threat ability will be enough to beat Indiana. Plus it’s Notre Dame.

Ric’s Picks:

Indiana +7.5 (-120) 1u

Notre Dame comes into this game with one of the most dynamic run games in the country while Indiana possesses one of the nation’s best run defenses. Now I don’t think that Indiana is going to go into Notre Dame and completely shut down their run game, but I do think they will limit them, and my main concern with this game is how Notre Dame can operate in the passing game especially in obvious passing situations. In the end I trust Kurtis Rourke and Curt Cignetti more than I do Marcus Freeman and Riley Leonard.

Logan’s Picks:

Indiana ML +220

Notre Dame is a fraud ass team who skates their way to these games by playing an independent schedule all year and acting like a top 10 team. Every time they get to these big games they get blown out cuz they ain’t battle tested. Indiana on the other hand dominated in the big 10 and only lost to Ohio State. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Indiana blows them out and shits on them. Who was the toughest opponent ND played this year. Texas A&M? USC? They lost to northern Illinois for god sakes, that loss alone shoulda knocked them out of the playoffs. I hate that the committee lets them get away with not being in a conference and playing a cakewalk of a schedule. Give me Indiana by a million.

Berg’s Picks:

Riley Leonard TD (+108) *FanDuel Boost* 3u

Riley Leonard will score tonight. I don’t care about Indiana’s run defense. It’s a cold game and Notre Dame will figure out how to pound the rock, cuz nobody has faith in Riley’s arm.

Don’t be surprised when he gets in the endzone first.

Emperor’s Picks:

Look fellas this game is very hard to bet on. With that being said, I’m not gonna be that guy with no pick in the first-ever 12-team CFB Playoff. That would be pathetic. ESPECIALLY in the Larry Bird Bowl game. Below are my 3 picks for the night. Let’s ride.

Over 50 (-112) 2u

Snow this. Defense is good that. DON’T CARE! We have two teams averaging over 40 PPG facing off in the Larry Bird Bowl Game. What did Larry Bird like to do? Score points. System play, take the points.

The public is feeding way to much into the weather that the game total has dropped 2.5 Points today. Bunch of fools.

GIVE US POINTS!

Notre Dame -5.5 (-137) 1u

From the moment Indiana got in the playoff, I knew I would never put a $ on them. However, I wasn’t to sure if I’d be siding with the Irish tonight BUT HERE ARE.

Gimme the Irish. For Rudy. Que the bagpipes.

• SGP (+165) 1u
  • Jeremiyah Love TD
  • Riley Leonard TD

Somewhat foolish but love these two scoring tonight. Love and Leonard are simply TD machines.

Love has scored in every single game this season while Riley has scored in 9/12 games this season. With the temp being very low, I’m loving Notre Dame to run the damn ball with their two best players on the field.