2023-24 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview & Picks for Degenerates
Playoff Football has officially begun and oh boy, we are so back. Sure, Super Wild Card Weekend may not have gone to plan for most of the guys (besides Santi), but hey, you could be a Cowboys or Eagles fan.
Super Wild Card Weekend Recap:
- Santi: 4-2 | +1.35u
- Emperor: 5-4 | +0.57u
- Jigo: 4-4 | 0u
- Doc Candi: 6-8 | -0.09u
- Shep: 4-5 | -2u
*ReRackPicks: 23-23 | -0.17u*
This week we have four very exciting matchups and hopefully all better games than the majority of what we watched on television this past week. Two on Saturday and two on Sunday. It doesn’t get much better than that.
With that being said, we don’t need much of an intro. ReRack is back. ReRack Picks is back. And now it’s time for the fine gentlemen of ReRack Picks to break down their picks for Divisional Weekend.
Operation Bankrupt Vegas begins now.
Saturday, January 20th 2024
4:30 PM: Houston Texans (+9.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Betting Trends
- Houston Texans 10-8-0 ATS
- Houston Texans are 5-3 ATS in road games
- Houston Texans have not hit the 1H Game Total Over in any of their last 10 away game
- Baltimore Ravens 11-6-0 ATS
- Game Total Over has hit in 5 of Ravens last 9 games at home
Santi’s Picks: Ravens 1H -5.5 (-115) 1u
The Ravens are coming into this matchup with fresh legs, and also the best 1st half defense in all of football.
Ravens 1H offense averages 15.4 points / Ravens 1H defense allows an average of 7.0 points
Texans 1H offense averages 11.7 points / Texans 1H defense allows an average of 9.2 points
Mathematically, the 1H spread makes sense solely based on these numbers (5.9 point difference in favor of Ravens), but there’s some outliers here that give reason to back the Ravens even more. As we know, the Texans play in a dome. The away splits show us that they are in fact negatively affected by the elements (14.5 1H ppg at home/8.3 1H ppg away).
With the rest, home field, weather and overall team strength advantages – give me the Ravens 1H -5.5 (-115 @PointsBet).
Emperor Picks: Ravens -7.5 (-148) 1u | Isaiah Likely o38.5 Rec Yards (-110) .66u
10-6 ATS and arguably the hottest team in football (minus the Bills)??? Give me this alternate spread, Ravens -7.5.
With 63% of the public currently on the Texans spread, the Texans playing away and especially not in a dome, I love this play. Now you may ask if I love the Ravens so much, why am I buying the points? 10 points in any playoff game worries me, so just wanted to bring it down to a one score game. I’m a snowflake.
Shoutout Mr. Santi for the Likely play. Likely will get action as the TE1. TEs this season averaged 57 Rec Yards per game vs the Texans. Likely has cleared 38.5 his past 5 games when he has had played at least 60% of snaps. With Andrews out tomorrow, Likely will for sure be playing more than 60% of snaps. Solid prop to ride with in this game.
Jigo Picks: Texans +9.5 (-110) 2u | Texans/Ravens O 43.5 (-110) 2u | CJ Stroud o1.5 Passing TDs (+155) 1u (NEW ADD)
I’m fully on board on what Lovie Smith DeMeco Ryans has done in Houston. CJ Stroud is HIM. +9.5 is way to many points against an unproven playoff Lamar Jackson. Line makers have to stop sleeping on the Texans. Also CJ Stroud legit has God on his side how can they lose with God Romans 8:31.
Points Points Points. The Line is way to low for this game. In Houston’s past 5 they have averaged 27 PPG while Baltimore has averaged 31.8 (with a 10 point game in the mix there as well)…. You do the math.
Doc Candi Picks: Lamar Jackson o225.5 passing yds (-114)
For this first play, I’m going to stick to what’s been working and that’s been fading the Texans’ secondary. Teams have had so much success airing it out against Houston. I think we’re getting a bargain on Lamar’s passing yard line because (1) LaMaR iS a RuNnInG bAcK and 2) the Ravens will likely have a positive game script. The reality is Lamar is more than capable of airing it out, and I expect them to give him the green light to show people that he can win a playoff game and do it through the air as well. Expect Lamar to have 28-30 passing attempts and shred Houston’s defense, showing why he’s this season’s MVP. I love the SGP below as well.
SGP: (-115)
- Lamar Jackson 150+ passing yds
- Lamar Jackson 25+ rushing yds
- Zay Flowers 25+ receiving yds
- CJ Stroud 150+ passing yds
- Texans +31.5
SGP: Texans +18 + Devin Singletary o13.5 rush attempts (-129)
If the Texans have any hope of pulling off an upset here, it can’t be all CJ Stroud. The most effective way to attack the Ravens is through the run game. We don’t think of Devin Singletary as a true workhorse we should, as he plays every meaningful snap and gets just about every RB carry on that offense. Last week, Dameon Pierce mixed in for 3 rush attempts and this occurred after the Texans were up 45-14. I have too much respect for Baltimore to take the +9.6 but if this game is anywhere close Singletary is a lock for 14 rush attempts. With that being said, I’m going to bank on the Texans +18 and if that hits I have no doubt that Singletary gets it done!
8:15 PM: Green Bay Packers (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Betting Trends
- Green Bay Packers 10-8-0 ATS
- Game Total Over has hit 4 times out last 5 Packers games
- Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games
- San Francisco 49ers 9-8-0 ATS
- San Francisco 49ers have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games at home
Santi’s Picks: Over 50.5 (-110) 1u | Deebo Samuel o75.5 rush/rec yards (-120) 1u (NEW ADD)
I’m not gonna sit here and say that this 49ers defense isn’t elite, but I tend to like overs in games that include a good run defense because that opens up the fast-paced passing game. The 49ers should have no problem putting points on the board in this one and that will force Love and company to play catch up. Instead of putting together time consuming and balanced drives, the Packers will more than likely find themselves airing it out the entire 2nd half. As for the 49ers, they should realistically dominate wherever they choose, as the Packers are ranked 28th against the run and 14th against the pass. In the case that the 49ers do find themselves ahead, I’m confident they’ll be able to continue to put points on the board even while attempting to chew clock. The weather looks just as good as both of these offenses in this matchup, give me the Over 50.5 (-110 @DraftKings).
Unfortunately for my other bet in this game (Over 50.5) the weather changed and the forecast for this game now includes rain storms – I’m still gonna stick with the over here, but this brings in another aspect of the 49ers game that I think we can profit off of. It’s a little bit tougher to capitalize on the deep passes in the rain and it’s often popular to lean slightly more on the run in a wet game as well. Both of these factors are right up Deebo’s alley. Deebo won’t be affected by the weather, he’s only gotten 8 deep targets the entire season & he has an ADOT of 6.6 (perfect for this weather). With his YAC skills (9th in the NFL), we should see him become a big part of this game. Not to mention CMC is likely not 100% yet, so Deebo will likely be a factor in the backfield as well against the Packers 28th ranked run defense.
Emperor Picks: Over 50 (-125) 1u | Packers +10 (-110) 1u (NEW ADD)
Tailing the hot hand above (Santi)! I mean last Saturday was a disappointment when the Over looked promising int he first half of the Dolphins Chiefs game, so hopefully we get a positive outcome this time.
49ers offense is lethal and I think can easily put up 30+ points in this game. With that being said, the Packers nearly dropped a 50 bomb on the Cowgirls last week and are red hot. A fresh 49ers offense and a red hot JLove offense can only mean one thing in my brilliant mind… points. This is once again a “Saturday Night I’m not a Dork Play”. Give me points and a fun game.
Well the weather kinda screwed me but BookItWithTrent just dropped his picks so of course I’m taking Packers +10 if he’s on San Fran. Lets get points and a Packers dub. Imagine that.
Jigo Picks: NO BETS
I could see this game going both ways. Green Bay has been playing amazing Football and have been in *two playoffs games already this year (played a win and get in against Chicago). I think they could easily stay in this game against a rested, maybe rusted San Fran Team.
On the other hand San Fran is San Fran they are head and shoulders the team to beat in the playoffs. Week and week out have been dominating teams. Therefore I’m not picking a dog in this fight.
Doc Candi Picks: SGP (+117)
- Jordan Love 150+ pass yds
- Jayden Reed 25+ rec yds
- George Kittle 25+ rec yds
- Brandon Aiyuk 25+ rec yds
- CMC 40+ rushing yds
Very square, I get it, but let’s break this one down. The Packers in what should be a trailing game script will have to air it out, and I expect Jayden Reed to be much more involved. When you’re winning in blow out fashion it’s fun to get everyone involved but against San Francisco Love is going to need his #1 option to deliver, and despite a monster game from Doubs last week Reed is still the 1A in Green Bay. Kittle can get 25 receiving yards with 1 catch, and Aiyuk should be a lock for 25 as well. As for CMC, 40+ rushing yds is a free square to get us to plus money here
Sunday, January 21st 2024
3:00 PM: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) @ Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Bucs 12-6-0 ATS
- Bucs are 8-1 in their road games ATS
- Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games
- Detroit Lions 12-6-0 ATS
- Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games
Santi’s Picks: Baker Mayfield o249.5 pass yds (-114) 1u
Chef Baker is in full effect here. I’m trying to be as unbiased as possible while writing this – but Baker should be able to sling the rock effortlessly in this one. Since their week 9 bye week, the Lions have allowed 299 passing yards per game and 8.78 yards per attempt while ranking 30th in success rate and 32nd in EPA/Dropback. Tampa likely won’t be able to establish the run against the 2nd best run defense in the league, so throwing is likely going to be the only option. Baker’s line is set way too low in my opinion, which is why I’ll be taking Baker Mayfield o249.5 passing yards (-114 @BetRivers).
Emperor Picks: SGP – Baker o249.5 + Goff o249.5 Passing Yards (+130) 1u | Bucs +7.5 (-163) 1u
Lions have one of the worst Pass Defenses in the league yet one of the top Rushing Defenses. That checks then Baker Mayfield over box for me. I also find it wild early in the week Baker’s Passing Yards Total was roughly around 243.5 Passing Yards. It’s almost 260 now…
Now for the Goff part. He has hit this over in each of his past 5 games. The Bucs also have a Top 5 Rush Defense. I mean cmon, this has to hit right?
Jigo Picks: Buccaneers/Lions O 48.5(-110) 2u | Buccaneers +6.5 (-110) 1u
This game screams over. It might be freest bet of week to be honest with you. Both Defenses are sub par and both offenses are explosive. Don’t overthink this Over.
I always have to take +6.5 whenever i see that line. It’s in the gambling handbook. Plus i liked what i saw last week in the Bucs. 6.5 seems to be a safe bet.
Doc Candi Picks: Bucs +7 (-135) 2u | Rachaad White o21.5 receiving yards (-114) 1u | SGP (-117) 1u
SGP (-117)
- Rachaad White 2+ receptions
- Chris Godwin 3+ receptions
- Mike Evans 25+ receiving yds
- Baker Mayfield 175+ passing yds
- David Montgomery 25+ rushing yds
Last week, Rachaad White screwed me. I needed 2 receptions and he only got 1 on 3 targets. In what should be a negative game script this week, I expect 5+ targets for White and against Detroit I expect him to be efficient on those. Godwin I always target receptions whereas Evans I target the yardage based on their ADOTs. Against Detroits’ secondary, we’ve seen many defenses carve them up. Baker should clear 175 easily. The lions have a positive or neutral game script also boats well with David Montgomery, as he’ll get 25+ easily.
6:30 PM: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Chiefs 10-8-0 ATS
- Chiefs are 4-3 in their road games ATS
- The Game Total Under has hit 4 times out of the last 5 Chiefs games
- Buffalo Bills 8-9-1 ATS
- Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home
Santi’s Picks: Josh Allen Anytime TD (+100) 1u
The future bets are still in play for the Bills here, so I’m avoiding anything that has to do with the outcome of the game. Fournette is gone and James Cook knows he isn’t getting a handoff within the 5 yard line as that territory belongs to Josh Allen. The guy has scored in 13 out of 18 games this season and they’re offering his anytime TD for even money? Everyone knows Josh loves to use his legs in big games, give me Josh Allen anytime TD (+100 @Caesars).
Emperor Picks: Bills ML (-150) 5u | Chiefs/Bills o45.5 (-115) 2u | Patrick Mahomes o253.5 Passing Yards (-110) 1u | Josh Allen o275.5 Pass + Rush Yards (-110) 1u (NEW PLAY)
Biggest game of the weekend for America and myself. 4 unit hammer on the boys in Buffalo as well and a cute 2u play on the Game Total Over.
At the moment I’m writing this, the Public is almost evenly split on the outcome of this game while favoring the over. Now I am well aware of the narrative that Buffalo can’t beat KC in the Playoffs but we are about to see Patrick Mahomes play in enemy territory during the Playoffs for the first time in his career. Never being a visitor in a do or die game is CRAZY (well you could make the argument for Super Bowl LV lol).
Home field advantage is a huge factor in the NFL Playoffs, ESPECIALLY when your dealing with Bills Mafia. Those people have already started tailgating at the stadium for this game. I can’t go against Buffalo.
Now onto the over… Two of the best QBs in the league are going to put a show on for the world Sunday night. Buffalo defense is so depleted that the Pittsburgh Steelers lead by Mason Rudolph were able to put up 17 points. The Chiefs will most definitely score the ball numerous times against Buffalo. On the other side, Buffalo will do the exact the same. Clearly after watching last week, weather is not a factor for either of these squads. Buffalo has a better offense and facing a super young defense in KC, I’m banking on the Bills finding numerous ways to score. I mean averaging 26.2 PPG has to mean something right?
Swifties and Pfizer boy are getting sent home this Sunday night. Buffalo ML, HAMMER . Points, Love it. HAMMER.
Jigo Picks: Bills ML (-150) 1u
Buffalo @ Home. Bills Mafia. I won’t bet against that.
Doc Candi Picks: Bills ML (-142) 2u | SGP Josh Allen o7.5 rush attempts + Mahomes o2.5 rush attempts (-103) 1u
I see too many people picking Kansas City here. I’m going to keep this one short. The Bills are the better team at home, in a stadium where home advantage is worth more than a field goal. I get that it’s Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball, but I believe in Josh Allen to put the team on his back. Not to mention, he can finally lean on James Cook and the run game whereas in recent years he had to do it all himself.
Now for the SGP. The reasoning here is simple. Both of the QBs want to be the hero, and both of them are going to leave everything on the field. We know that in big games Josh Allen is willing to lower his shoulder and engage in risky plays for his team. Not to mention, the Bills are going to win and a couple kneel downs should help get us over this line if needed.
Other Plays/Parlays
Jigo: (TD PARLAY) Aaron Jones TD + David Montgomery TD (+220) .5u
Let’s make some money this week fellas. God Bless America and God Bless Football.