24-25 NFL Championship Sunday: Preview & Picks for Degenerates
Well fellas we are officially down to four teams. 2 spots open for Super Bowl LIX. Let’s cut to the chase and not drag this out…
Below the fellas from @rerackpicks break down their picks for each Championship game this weekend. May the Football Gods bless us all as we prepare for battle.
Operation Bankrupt Vegas begins now…
LAST ADDS:
NFC Championship Game
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
*Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA| 3:00 PM E.T. on NBC*
Santi’s Picks:
Eagles -5.5 (-125) 1u | Jalen Hurts o24.5 Pass Attempts (-106) 1u
Taking the Eagles once again and sticking by my word when I said they’d be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. I’ll tip my cap to Jayden Daniels for everything he’s done these last two weeks, but reality will hit on Sunday. I want you to take a closer look at the teams that Daniels has faced off against; the Bucs and Lions. Now what do these two teams have in common? No secondary and minimal QB pressure rates. As a Bucs fan, I can openly admit our defense has been a joke the entire season. No one can get to the quarterback and our secondary is equivalent to a high school JV team outside of Winfield. As for the Lions, they basically threw out their practice squad last week after Amik Robertson got injured on the first drive of the game. Daniels has been good, don’t get it twisted; but the Eagles defense is not the Bucs or Lions. A huge part of the Commanders success is that they have been able to churn out long drives keeping the opposing great offenses off the field, they have still allowed 51 points in 2 games, playing essentially their form of a perfect game in my mind. The Commanders won the last matchup against Philly by 3, take a quick look at how that game was going before Hurts left halfway through the 1st quarter..
Hurts is kinda hurt, and yes I am well aware of this and still taking the Eagles spread confidently. While I don’t see him running all over the place in this game, I can see much shorter passes and also some throwaways on certain plays that he would normally run on. The Commanders know Saquon is a problem. If you were the Commanders would you gameplan to stop the run and force the injured QB to make the plays, or would you prefer to stop a hobbled Hurts and let Saquon run free? Easy answer, they will commit to stopping the run. Now with that in mind, we have a very capable passer with arguably the best receiving core in all of football. Hurts’ has averaged 20.5 pass attempts and 6.5 rush attempts through the playoffs, I think some of those rush attempts will translate into passes in this one. The reduced mobility also increases the odds that we see Philly drawing up quicker pass plays to reduce the chances of him getting hit. I don’t really think we see this game becoming a shootout, but I do see Hurts controlling the clock through the ground game and short pass plays.
Doctor Candi’s Picks:
- SGP (-137) 1u
- Jalen Hurts 150+ Passing Yards
- AJ Brown 40+ Receiving Yards
- Jayden Daniels 150+ Passing Yards
Jalen Hurts 1Q o39.5 Passing Yards (-110) 0.5u
I think this is a great buy low spot on AJ Brown and this Eagles passing attack as a whole. These over/unders for Hurts (180.5 passing yds) and AJ Brown (63.5 rec yds) are extremely low, especially when you would consider this to be a pretty neutral matchup…maybe even a favorable one. If Hurts is not 100% you can argue this would favor the passing game as they would design fewer QB runs. The Eagles offense has not looked good, Saquon has been electric but I think the coaching staff has to recognize that the formula needs to be different against Washington. I think Jayden Daniels and this Washington offense is going to have some explosive plays and that will push Philly to be more aggressive as well. I just can’t see Hurts going out there and having another game where he throws for 100-125 yards and needs Saquon to bail out this offense.
Ric’s Picks:
- SGP (+125) 1u
- Eagles ML
- AJ Brown 40+ Receiving Yards
- Jalen Hurts 150+ Passing Yards
This is where the Cinderella story for the commies comes to an end. Jayden Daniels is a great QB, I wouldn’t even be mad at you if you put an elite tag on him because he’s already that good. But man is their defense horrendous, and in addition to that one of if not the best lineman on the commies is out (Sam Cosmi). So a backup is going to have to step in with the task of containing Jalen Carter. Jalen Hurts is going to need to make his throws in order to put this game away, and if AJ has his breakout game of the playoffs I see both of their totals hitting. I think it’s as simple as holding the commies under 30 and the birds win this game.
Key’s Picks:
Commanders +7.5 (-164) 1u
There’s absolutely no way that I will every root for the scums of Philly. Give Jayden Daniels or give me death.
I think WSH does hang in there, they’ve been resilient all year. Maybe they don’t win, but they will find a way to keep it close.
Emperor’s Picks:
- SGP (+296) 1u
- Under 47.5 Points
- Jayden Daniels 225+ Passing & Rushing Yards
- DeVonta Smith 4+ Receptions
Three legs I am highly confident in to craft this lovely SGP.
Leg 1, I’m riding the under for two reasons. One is because a legend at my job put me onto this saying this could be the paly. I listen to smart people so if you’re reading this, thank you. Next is because we have 87% of the public hammering the over for this game. Commanders are coming off a whopping 40+ points vs the Lions. I hate betting unders but it is what it is.
Leg 2- Jayden is going to be the sole reason Commanders will be able to stay in this game. I trust his arm and his legs being able to get 225 total yards here. Eagles rush D will stop Robinson, so I can see JAyden airing the ball out more.
Leg 3- DeVonta is so damn consistent. He’s only had less than 4 receptions in three games this season.
Hope the Commanders win this game, but most importantly, I hope i win. Let’s ride!
Berg’s Picks:
Jayden Daniels o1.5 Passing TDs (+130) 1u
This pick cashed for me last week finishing off my perfect 4-0 divisional round. The Eagles defense last week looked beatable and Jayden Daniels is on fire. No reason why he wouldn’t be able to do this in the first half.
Jayden Daniels over 275+ Passing + Rushing Yards (-146) 1u
This pick seems like a lock every week so far in the playoffs and I’m not gonna shy away from it just because the eagles have a good defense. I expect another JD legacy game where he might be in a position to beat the eagles.
Austin Ekeler o46.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-114) 1u
Ekeler had 89 receiving yards alone last time he played the eagles, it’s just such a great matchup for him. 46.5 will be free.
AFC Championship Game
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
*Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO| 6:30 PM E.T. on ESPN/ABC*
Santi’s Picks:
- SGP (-110) 1u
- Chiefs Team Total o22.5 Points
- Bills Team Total o16.5 Points
If you can’t beat em, join em. At the time of writing 70% of the money is on the Bills, what could go wrong? I love the Bills, but their schedule has been a cakewalk for the defense & I don’t think they’d be heading into KC this week if the Ravens hadn’t shot themselves in the foot last week. Buffalo faced off against 5 playoff teams throughout the regular season, allowing an average of 33 points per game in those “playoff level” games. I think a lot of people aren’t seeing what the Chiefs true potential is right now. In reality, if the Chiefs are pushed to score points – they will score those points. This will easily be the toughest matchup the Chiefs are playing against on the defensive side of the ball, they’re not gonna hold the Bills to 10 points on Sunday. Everyone in that facility knows that the Chiefs offense will have to win them this game rather than just relying on the defense and putting together a couple scoring drives here and there.
Doctor Candi’s Picks:
Bills/Chiefs 1H u24 (-110) 1.5u
Obviously we are all rooting for Josh Allen here but I’m a bit nervous that the public is betting with their dick here. I’m actually not concerned about the refs at all in fact I think there’s a chance that they overcorrect and even give Buffalo a few calls their way. However, these two teams are too similar and are quite frankly evenly matched. I don’t see much value on either side of the spread. Both of these teams have shown the ability to sustain long drives and avoid making costly mistakes. I think we might see a conservative start to this game. I refuse to take the full game over because we know that when times get desperate in the 4th quarter we know that the under is cooked. It could be 14-17 with 5 minutes left and somehow, the final score will be 24-27. I’ll bet on a calm and gentle 1H and then I think both coaches will go in the locker room, reassess things and all hell might break loose later on.
Ric’s Picks:
Bills ML (+108) 1u
Normally I’d write about how the Bills matchup well against the chiefs and their run game will be the key in winning this game, but against Taylor Swifts Devils it really doesn’t matter. I mean all football stats point to the bills having the advantage and dethroning the chiefs, but do they have enough to compete with the dark magic the chiefs bring in week in and week out? Who the fuck knows, but I sure hope Sean McDermott makes one of his great locker room speeches and takes down these demons. The world is counting on you Josh, bring it home for the boys (and then shit the bed in the Super Bowl against the birds)
Key’s Picks:
Chiefs ML (-130) 1u
Again, 0 shot I’ll ever root for the bills. I am most likely on the rare side of I want to see Mahomes win 8 Super Bowls. Mostly fuck the Pats, Brady, Bellicheat, I want those scums wiped from the record books.
Yeah are you sick of Chiefs always winning and want to see someone else win? Sure, you probably also voted for Kamala too. Let’s all appreciate greatness when we see it and watch Mahomes, Reid, and the chiefs make a historic run. (Unless they are playing the Jets then fuck them). But the days of hearing how great the pats are needs to end, and chiefs being a better dynasty start now with a potential 3 peat on the line. Something the cheatroits never did.
Rolllllllll damn chiefs. #freechiefsaholic
Emperor’s Picks:
Bills ML (+110) 1u
America is back. The Bills are America’s team. Sunday is the Lords day. The devil will be defeated Sunday night. 2 easy signs fellas. Now join me in this war as we defeat Dark Magic, the devil, Swifties, Pfizer, and of course the Kelce Family that is starting to become insufferable. (Still a Mahomes fan but I’m sick of this dynasty)
Simply a biased pick but I’m rollin with my Uncle Matt’s Bills. LETS GO BUFFALOOOO. Key is also such a cuck for taking the Chiefs after reading his bullshit reasoning. Enjoy being down a unit brother man.
Berg’s Picks:
Patrick Mahomes o1.5 Passing TDs (-154) 1u
Mahomes needs to turn up in this game to win it and he knows that. He’s very capable of doing so whenever he feels like it and he is still the best QB in the league regardless of what anyone thinks it’s the truth.
King Will’s Picks:
Bills to win the Super Bowl (+260) 4u
Goddamnit if I have to watch the Chiefs win another Super Bowl ill throw up. Either way, this playoffs has been about the teams who don’t turn the ball over and control the clock. Josh Allen has already surpassed his years total Rush attempts in two playoff games so far. Look for Josh Allen and James Cook to control the clock. The Texans beat themselves last week, the Broncos beat themselves when they lost to the chiefs on a blocked kick, the Raiders beat themselves when they had an illegal procedure to knock them out of FG range to lose against the chiefs, the Ravens beat themselves when Isiah Likely couldn’t keep himself in bounds at the buzzer in week one. We have seen what this matchup looks like in Buffalo and it wasn’t close. I expect this game to be closer since it’s in Arrowhead and Mahomes has his weapons back… but still last time was a two score victory for the Bills. Look for Josh to take over and the bills not to beat themselves. For once I truly believe the chiefs are NOT the better team going into the game.
Obviously, that’s only half the bet… however from there you will have a +260 ticket on the favorite on Super Bowl Sunday. I will be letting my ticket ride, but hedging opportunities will be enormous.
Berg ur never winning a bet again you mook